The Toronto Maple Leafs won for the seventh time in eight tries without Auston Matthews on Sunday, a shockingly good record for any team at any time, let alone one playing without its best player.
The Leafs have the sixth-best record in the league (tied with Vegas) with a quarter of the season in the books and lead the Atlantic Division by three points over the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. The two teams will meet in Florida on Wednesday.
Which raises the question: How good is this team, really? Are the Leafs the inner-circle Stanley Cup contender their record suggests? Or still more like what we (or I) thought they were heading into the season: not quite inner circle but still among the 10 or so teams that could win it all?
Here’s what we know.
A giant leap defensively
This is what the front office had in mind when it brought in Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jani Hakanpää in the offseason and hired Craig Berube as head coach. The Leafs wanted to climb way up the ranks defensively after a regular season that saw them finish 21st in the NHL in goals against (3.18 per game).
So far this season, the Leafs rank fourth (2.48). Only Dallas, Minnesota and Winnipeg have been better.
What’s particularly noteworthy is how few quality chances this team is giving up at five-on-five. Only the Wild are allowing fewer high-danger attempts.
Not surprisingly, given their talents, the No. 1 pair of Tanev and Jake McCabe has been particularly effective at keeping the area around the net clear. In their 200 five-on-five minutes together, the Leafs give up only 6.4 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes, the third-best mark for any pairing in the league that’s logged at least 150 minutes.
Chris Tanev is part of one of the best defense pairings in the league. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
The penalty kill, meanwhile, has suddenly leapt from straight-up mediocre last season (10th worst at 76.9 percent) to borderline elite this season (sixth at 83.6 percent). Look under the hood and the Leafs are surrendering almost nine fewer shots per 60 minutes short-handed and about 13 fewer attempts.
That’s real improvement.
Goaltending has been top-notch
Of course, the Leafs are also allowing fewer goals because their tenders have been somewhere between good and great all year.
It’s easy to forget how dire things were on this front at this point last season, and for most of the first half, really, with Ilya Samsonov bottoming out of the league entirely.
Between Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, the Leafs have a team save percentage of .913, fourth best in the league. At five-on-five, they rank third. If there were a quarter-mark Vezina Trophy, Stolarz would be in the running for it.
It’s been even better during this eight-game stretch without Matthews — a juggernaut really: .942, the best of any team. (Next best is Calgary at .929.) Read that again. That’s a .942 save percentage for the Leafs in the last eight games. That’s a huge part of this recent run.
Offence is very blah
Recent improvement from the power play has obscured the scoring struggles of this team at five-on-five. The five-on-five play more generally is what makes this recent stretch a little hard to puzzle out. The Leafs have won about 43 percent of the shot attempts and just under 50 percent of expected goals.
Consider this wild fact: In eight games without Matthews, the Leafs have allowed only eight five-on-five goals, fewest in the league. But they’ve scored only nine at the other end, tied for last in the league.
Fewest goals allowed. Fewest scored.
It’s not just a results thing, either. The Leafs rank 31st in shots generated per 60 minutes and 29th in expected goals in that stretch.
Injuries up front are part of that. A healthy Matthews would obviously help, a lot, in the five-on-five goals department. And Berube is pushing for some tweaks (which we’ll get to later) that he hopes will aid in the attack.
The Leafs also still have stars, even without Matthews, who can break games open in an instant.
So is this a top-6 team and inner-circle contender, really? It feels like it’s too soon to tell.
The defensive improvement feels real (though that, too, will be dependent on continued good health on the back end; Hakanpää is the only defender who’s missed time with injury) and the power play is trending up after a brutal start.
The Leafs’ ceiling probably depends on a few things:
1. How much the five-on-five offence comes along. Eventually, scoring one goal a game at five-on-five most nights will catch up to this team. Even an average offence might be enough with stingier defensive play and strong goaltending.
2. And that’s another thing: how well the goaltending holds up. Some regression is coming. The question is how much, especially for two guys with health/workload concerns.
3. Whether a need at centre is addressed, and how. Right now, it’s Matthews, a 34-year-old John Tavares and a lot of uncertainty.
It’s possible, too, that this team has another level to reach if it gets back the Hart Trophy-calibre version of Matthews and continues to adjust to the methods of its head coach.
Points
1. Contrary to how it’s seemed, the Leafs are actually spending more time in the offensive zone this season (42.2 percent at even strength heading into Sunday’s game) than last season (41.3), according to the NHL’s EDGE analytics.
2. Berube on how he’d like the offence to improve: “I think attacking more than we are. There’s times that we tend to just control the play a little bit too much on the outside. We can attack more. More shots to the net. Getting pucks low to high and just on and off shooting with getting people to the net and finding numbers around there.”
The Leafs coach also wanted things done quicker.
3. Berube acknowledged the Leafs are being mindful of Stolarz’s workload in how they dole out starts, with Woll getting the last two. It’s also possible Stolarz isn’t 100 percent.
“(He’s) played a lot,” Berube said. “Both goalies are going to see more net than they have in the past. It’s important that we manage that to the best of our abilities.”
Stolarz has made 12 starts so far, which means he’s halfway to his career high of 24, which came last season.
Woll’s career high in the NHL? Twenty-three starts.
Joseph Woll’s excellent start in net alongside Anthony Stolarz has helped the Leafs immensely during a stretch without their captain. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
4. Mitch Marner has 2-point games in all seven of the Leafs’ wins without Matthews. Berube would still like him to shoot the puck more. Marner is averaging 2.62 shots per game, tied with Steven Stamkos for 59th among NHL forwards. He had four on Sunday night and scored twice.
5. The Atlantic Division, in its current format, has been around since the 2013-14 season. The Leafs have never won it. They finished second twice, in back-to-back seasons — 2021-22 and 2022-23.
6. The Leafs own the No. 2 power play in the league over the last eight games without Matthews (32.3 percent). What sticks out both by the numbers and eye test is how balanced the top unit has become. Everyone is involved. William Nylander and Marner have three goals each. Tavares has two. Matthew Knies and Morgan Rielly each have one.
Also notable: Marner has the primary assist on five of the 10 goals. In other words, he’s had a direct hand in eight of the 10 power-play markers minus Matthews.
7. It appears Nylander has the green light from Berube to stick around with the second unit after PP1 has left the ice. Nylander logged 8 minutes, 23 seconds of power-play time against Utah, tops among Leafs. That included some time with his brother, Alex, on PP2. William also topped all Leafs forwards in logging over 22 minutes.
In focus: Matthews’ return
Whether it’s Wednesday in Florida (Matthews’ tentative target date) or Saturday in Tampa (which seems more likely), the Leafs should have Matthews back in the lineup soon — assuming, of course, there are no setbacks or stagnation in his injury recovery.
I’m most curious to see:
A. How the power play operates in his return.
Matthews will rejoin the top power-play unit. There’s no question about that. (The only question is whether Knies sticks with that top group whenever he’s healthy or the Leafs keep Rielly there instead.) Can the Leafs keep the free-flowing vibes going still with Matthews and his shot in the mix, or will they revert to the stodgy form from earlier this season when Matthews was in the lineup?
B. What shape the lineup takes.
The trio of Bobby McMann, Tavares and Marner has worked quite well together (63 percent expected goals). There’s been a workmanlike quality there. Does Berube want to break that group to get Marner and Matthews back together? With the way Marner is playing of late, the Leafs coach probably shouldn’t change a thing. (If Matthews remains out until Saturday, the Leafs can drop Nylander and Knies onto Matthews’ wings.)
Bobby McMann and Mitch Marner have driven excellent results with Auston Matthews out. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
It feels like Fraser Minten has a chance to stick around even after the return of Matthews and Max Domi — if he can keep his head above water as the 3C. His line struggled on Sunday night.
C. Whether Matthews retains a primary role on the penalty kill. He was on first-unit duty before the injury and excelling there with Marner. The PK has fared OK in his absence, with Connor Dewar playing on the top unit of late with David Kämpf out injured. The Leafs could limit Matthews’ workload a bit by using him less.
D. If Matthews is back to being Matthews. It should be noticeable in the way he’s shooting the puck, stealing it back and throwing his body around whether Matthews has finally put this nagging injury, whatever it is, behind him.
Stock watch
Stock up: Marner the scorer
Marner had one goal in the first 11 games. He has seven in the last 10, putting him on pace for over 30 goals.
Stock down: On-ice results for Rielly
The possession number for Rielly over the last eight games: 33.7 percent. Expected goals in that stretch isn’t much better: 39 percent.
Things I think I think
The “measuring stick” game feels like an overused media narrative.
It does, however, feel like the Leafs can make an early statement with how they play against the Panthers on Wednesday night. Will it matter come playoff time whether the Leafs won, or played well, in a November game against Florida? Will the same existential questions be erased, in other words? No, obviously not.
Still, there is opportunity for this group to continue to legitimize its early-season performance with a strong night against the suddenly struggling champs. A win, mind you, would also increase the Leafs’ lead in the division over their beefiest contender. And that could mean a (slightly) lighter first-round matchup, for what that’s worth.
All of which is to say, it’s a big one.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey
(Top photo of William Nylander scoring on Karel Vejmelka: Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)