Iowa State controls its own destiny to the Big 12 title game despite a recent two-game losing streak but must defeat Kansas State at home in the regular season finale to ensure a spot in Arlington.
The Cyclones are small home favorites against Kansas State but will face a stiff test from the Wildcats, who have one of the best run games in the country. Can Rocco Becht and Iowa State punch their tickets to the Big 12 Championship?
Let’s break it down below.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas State
Avery Johnson: Johnson snapped out of a multi-week slump to gash Cincinnati on the ground for 72 yards and a touchdown. While he still is struggling to pass at a high level, he hasn’t completed more than 60% of his passes in more than a month, he has begun to utilize his legs again, opening up the rest of the offense.
Iowa State
Rocco Becht: Becht and the big-play hunting Cyclones are back in control of its path to the College Football Playoff. He is off an up-and-down affair against Utah in which he completed 20 passes for 256 yards and added a rushing touchdown, but did throw a pick and struggle with some bouts of inefficient passing.
I believe both offenses have a path to success in this game.
While neither offense plays super fast, the over is my preferred method of attack as each offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease due to its preferred method of play.
Let’s start with Iowa State, who has a top 35 passing game in terms of EPA/Play and is 14th in passing plays of 20 or more yards down the field. That’s massive against Kansas State, who has been shaky defending the pass all season, ranking outside the top 110 in explosive pass rate on the year. I’ll give the edge to Becht and the ‘Clones.
Meanwhile, with Johnson being a rush threat again after battling some nagging injuries, I believe we see the KSU offense start to look like we have come to expect this season. The team wants to lean on its ground game with Johnson and lead running back DJ Giddens and should see little resistance against an Iowa State defense that is allowing about five yards per carry and is bottom 40 in EPA/Rush.
I think both offenses move the ball and get a handful of scoring chances and send this game over the total.
PICK: OVER 51.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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