The final week of the regular season is upon us. After trouncing UNC (which proved to be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back for Mack Brown) to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, Bill O’Brien was very clear: his team is no doubt happy to clinch bowl eligibility, but there is business to take care of first. The Pitt Panthers visit Chestnut Hill this weekend. With the line sitting at BC -4.5 and the O/U at 49.5, let’s break it down (for the last time this regular season):
Pitt’s season can be broken down into two distinct halves. In the first half, Narduzzi’s typically stout defense was complemented by an explosive offense, steered by Alabama transfer Eli Holstein. They raced out to a 7-0 start to the year, reaching as high as #18 in the AP Poll and dismantling the likes of West Virginia, Syracuse, and UNC. Then, faced with some stiffer competition, the wheels began to fall off. Pitt enters this matchup having last four straight, with Holstein’s play regressing before a string of injuries took him off the field — including a nasty leg injury last week against Louisville. The defense suddenly looked less intimidating, as well, giving up 48 to SMU and 37 to Louisville. All this is to say: BC is flying high and Pitt is limping right now, which makes this game particularly tough to call.
Offensively, Pitt’s performance likely depends on the health of Holstein. He’s revitalized the Pitt offense (usually known for its physical, ground-and-pound approach) by slinging the rock all over the yard. He’s thrown for 2,225 yards, 17 TDs and 7 interceptions this season and has found a home in Pitt’s offense. Yet after head injuries left him unable to play against Clemson two weeks ago, and the aforementioned leg injury last week, his status is up in the air. If he can’t go, expect to see redshirt junior Nate Yarnell. He beat the Eagles last year; a tall pocket-passer, he is not to underestimated (although he is not as talented as Holstein). Regardless of who is behind center, RB Desmond Reid (151 carries, 797 yards, 4 TDs) and WR Konata Mumpfield (44 receptions, 669 yards, 4 TDs) will be names to watch. BC’s secondary actually had a strong showing against UNC last week, despite so many names out injured — they will need to be on point again, as Pitt will try to throw the ball. After an absolutely dominant showing for the defensive line last week, BC should again look to make their opponent one-dimensional and eliminate the run.
Defensively, Narduzzi’s squad features a dynamite pass rush (37 sacks on the year) led by dangerous LB duo Kyle Louis (7 sacks, and 4 ints as well) and Rasheem Biles (5 sacks) as well as DL Jimmy Scott (5 sacks). BC’s defensive line will need to protect James, and James will need to know his hot routes — get the ball out quickly and let playmakers go to work in space. In the secondary, eight different players have an interception (although no one has more than one except Louis). Taking care of the ball will be paramount. The line debuted at BC -2.5 and has since shifted two points in BC’s favor. On the surface, that makes sense given the state in which these two programs are in right now. But Pitt is not to be taken lightly; yes, they just lost four in a row but those four losses came to SMU, UVA, Clemson, and Louisville — arguably the three best teams in the ACC plus a Cavaliers squad that beat BC. If Holstein can go, there’s no doubt he will test BC’s secondary more than UNC did last week. I think BC wins, but I think it is closer than expected.
Picks: Pitt +4.5 (though BC wins), U 49.5