BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The most fun aspect of the College Football Playoff is the scoreboard-watching each weekend provides.
In the old days, such horse race-style viewing was confined to conference races in the bowl days and the very top of the rankings (which rarely shifted) in the BCS and four-team CFP era.
With 12 teams in the CFP? A college football fan has to keep an eye on multiple fronts to know where their team stands.
This makes each week so much more fascinating. Indiana’s College Football Playoff fate is primarily in the Hoosiers’ own hands if they beat Purdue at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday.
But Indiana fans still have to pay attention to the usual Big Ten contests, in addition to Georgia Tech-Georgia, Clemson-South Carolina, Notre Dame-USC and Tennessee-Vanderbilt to name just the four most important non-Big Ten games that impact the Hoosiers.
So dig in for the last week of regular-season games.
Big Ten Watch
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) celebrates a touchdown by TreVeyon Henderson during the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
• Michigan (6-5) at No. 2 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1), Noon Saturday, FOX: Indiana needs Michigan to pull off an upset to keep Indiana’s hopes of a Big Ten championship game appearance alive.
The Game has produced surprises. The lower-ranked team has won four of the last five meetings, but that’s relative. Ohio State was ranked No. 2 in the last three seasons, but was beaten by Michigan teams ranked no lower than No. 5 in the polls. In 2018, No. 10 Ohio State beat No. 4 Michigan, so none of those games were upsets in the same manner this unranked Michigan team is being asked to accomplish.
The last time an unranked team upset the ranked team in this series was 2004, when Ohio State dropped No. 7 Michigan. The last time the Wolverines did it was in 1993. So while it’s possible for the Wolverines to pull off the upset, it’s not a high probability.
• Maryland (4-7, 1-7) at No. 4 Penn State (10-1, 7-1), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, BTN: The Hoosiers would also need the Nittany Lions to lose to have a chance at the Big Ten championship game. I wouldn’t count on it. Maryland is in free fall, with four straight losses and six defeats in its last seven games.
In addition, Penn State has absolutely dominated this series. Penn State has a 43-3-1 edge. It makes the Indiana-Ohio State and Indiana-Michigan series look positively competitive in comparison.
• Washington (6-5, 4-4) at No. 1 Oregon (11-0, 8-0), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC: This game doesn’t have much bearing on the Hoosiers. Oregon has already clinched a Big Ten championship game berth, and an Oregon loss likely wouldn’t drop the Ducks below the Hoosiers.
College Football Playoff Rankings Watch
• Oregon State (5-6) at No. 11 Boise State (10-1), Noon Friday, FOX: This game is included only because the Broncos are directly behind the Hoosiers in the CFP rankings, but Boise State’s path is through a Mountain West Conference championship and the quarterfinal bye the Broncos currently possess.
This game is also a testament to TV networks run amok. This game will kickoff at 10 a.m. local time in Boise.
• Mississippi State (2-9) at No. 15 Ole Miss (8-3), 3:30 p.m. Friday, ABC: Mississippi State is the Purdue of the SEC in the sense that the Bulldogs were handed a brutal conference schedule. Ole Miss will be Mississippi State’s fifth ranked opponent in SEC play. Two other unranked foes at the time they played – Florida and Missouri – are playing very well (Florida) or are ranked now (Missouri).
Ole Miss needs a lot of upsets to happen to play their way back into the CFP field. Indiana would prefer the Rebels are killed off and that the Bulldogs pull the Egg Bowl upset.
• Georgia Tech (7-4) at No. 7 Georgia (9-2), 7:30 p.m. Friday, ABC: Georgia Tech has sprung some surprises this year. It has two top 10 wins at the time the games were played. However, one of them was against Florida State in the season opener, and the Seminoles rapidly turned into a pumpkin. Indiana would love to have the Rambling Wreck pull off the upset – it’s one thing that would need to happen for Indiana to have a shot at hosting a playoff game.
Oddly, Georgia Tech’s last four wins in the series were all in Athens, but it’s a tall order for Tech this time.
South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Robby Ashford (1) throws a pass against the Wofford Terriers in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. / Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
• No. 15 South Carolina (8-3) at No. 12 Clemson (9-2), Noon Saturday, ESPN: Clemson has emerged as a danger to Indiana’s CFP status. A win over South Carolina would give the Tigers a quality win the Hoosiers don’t get a chance to match themselves – unless Indiana earns a long-shot Big Ten championship game berth.
A South Carolina win presents its own problems, as beating Clemson would give the Gamecocks a quality win Indiana can’t match. But the Gamecocks would be among a large group of three-win SEC teams trying to play their way into the field. Would a three-loss South Carolina team threaten a one-loss Indiana team? You would think not, but stranger things have happened.
It would be better if South Carolina won, but not that much better for the Hoosiers.
• No. 8 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5), Noon Saturday, ABC: Recency bias can be a thing as it relates to rankings. Over an entire body of work, if Tennessee were to lose to Vanderbilt, the three-loss Volunteers would still have a better resume than, say, three-loss South Carolina, but would the rankings actually reflect that?
However it shakes out, it would help the Hoosiers if the Commodores recovered their first-half form and pulled off the upset. Vanderbilt has lost three of its last four games, though.
Syracuse Orange wide receiver Darrell Gill Jr. (82) is tackled by Connecticut Huskies defensive back Malik Dixon-Williams (1) and defensive back Cam Chadwick (13) in the third quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
• No. 6 Miami (10-1) at Syracuse (8-3), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN: If there’s an upset possibility that might be most probable, this game could be it. Syracuse has quietly been pretty good this season. The Orange can score, too, a problem for a Miami defense that doesn’t have much stopping power.
If Miami did lose, it could jeopardize the ACC’s late-season run at two playoff bids. Doing so would open up breathing room for bubble teams like Indiana.
• No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1) at USC (6-5), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS: Everyone seems to be waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has played the weakest schedule among CFP teams – ranked 78th after Indiana’s SOS jumped to No. 50 after playing Ohio State.
The Fighting Irish, however, have won their last five games by an average of 34 points. USC should be capable of giving Notre Dame a game, but the Trojans seem to disappoint when they’re on the precipice of getting their act together. Indiana will hope their Big Ten buddy will do them a solid.
• Auburn (5-6) at No. 13 Alabama (8-3), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: Auburn made its presence felt in the CFP playoff chase with its overtime upset against Texas A&M last week. Does anyone really think Alabama is out with three losses? The Crimson Tide are lurking just two at-large spots behind the Hoosiers, though the Tide would need a lot of help to get in the field. Indiana will hope the Tigers kill off that possibility with an upset.
Boston College Eagles quarterback Grayson James (14) is sacked by SMU Mustangs defensive end Jahfari Harvey (6) on a fourth down attempt during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
• California (6-5) at No. 9 SMU (10-1), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2: The Mustangs, who bought their way into the ACC, might just win the darn thing. A Cal win would do Indiana a world of good as SMU can’t afford a loss as far as its at-large chances are concerned.
• No. 3 Texas (10-1) at No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: This game is included because Texas A&M can still make it to the SEC championship game with a win. If A&M did make the SEC championship game and won? They would still get a bid and make the bubble that much tighter. Indiana needs the Longhorns to prevail.