Despite the boatload of goals Everton scored in Wednesday night’s 4-0 demolition job on a hapless Wolverhampton Wanderers side, they accomplished the bare minimum in registering a first Premier League victory since October 19th. The Toffees had gone five games without a victory, picking up just three points.
Ahead of a daunting run of games stretching to the end of the calendar year, the Blues badly needed a win to bolster their league position. First up in a sequence of four extremely tough matches, cross-city rivals and league leaders Liverpool visit Goodison Park for probably the final time in today’s early kickoff.
Form
The Reds bid farewell to beloved manager Jürgen Klopp last season, the German boss guiding them to a third-placed finish in his ninth and final campaign with the club. The Merseysiders appointed Feyenoord boss Arne Slot as Klopp’s replacement, but there was relatively little activity in the transfer market in support of the new man. The club had spent heavily – rebuilding the midfield – in the previous year, and presumably felt the squad well enough equipped for the time being.
Georgian Goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, so impressive for his country during the European Championships in the summer, was signed for €30m — though the giant 24-year-old will remain at Valencia for the current campaign. The other addition was high-profile attacker Federico Chiesa, brought in from Juventus for a bargain €12m, but who has been injured almost since arriving at his new club. Departing were two younger players who’d spent last season on loan in midfielder Fábio Carvalho and defender Sepp van den Berg, both sold to Brentford, for a combined €47m.
It’s fair to say that Slot had big shoes to fill, in succeeding Anfield legend Klopp, but he’s performed way beyond anyone’s wildest expectations. After five games of the new eight-match Champion League first phase, Liverpool sit top, having won all their matches. Domestically, the Reds started the campaign with three consecutive victories, before tasting defeat for the first (and only) time so far this season, losing 1-0 to Nottingham Forest. Two further streaks of four wins apiece, sandwiched around a 2-2 draw at Arsenal, cemented the team’s impressive form.
Former Blue Anthony Gordon scores one of Newcastle’s three goals against the Reds on Wednesday
Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images
Liverpool arrive at Goodison coming off a six-goal stalemate with Newcastle United, at St. James’ Park in midweek and lead the Premier League with a seven-point advantage over both Chelsea and the Gunners.
Style of Play
The Dutchman has used a 4-2-3-1 formation throughout the campaign. He’s not changed anything too drastically from Klopp’s time, though Liverpool are more measured and focused on ball control under the new man. They are third currently in share of possession, with 56.9% and rank fifth in the division with a pass completion percentage of 85.9. Accordingly, they go long with just 8.8% of their passes. The Reds tend to favour focusing play down the left.
Liverpool have scored 29 times, which matches their xG (Expected Goals) tally of 28.6 and they are attempting 15.4 shots per 90 minutes, which ranks fourth. They’ve been ineffective in scoring from set-plays (just twice — ranking joint 16th), but have converted four penalties (joint top) and scored five from counterattacks (tied for third most).
Today’s visitors have conceded eleven times, better than their xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) statistic of 11.5, primarily due to both goalkeepers – Alisson and Caoimhín Kelleher – performing at a high level when called upon. They allow only 10.1 shots on their goal per 90 — ranking second in the division. Liverpool are middling in terms of defending set-pieces, having conceded three, but have been beaten only six times in general play.
Player Assessment
It’s hard to look beyond Mohamed Salah as Liverpool’s best player currently. The Egyptian right-sided forward has scored 13 league goals (one less than Everton’s team total) and provided eight assists. He’s second on the team with 4.4 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90 minutes. At 32, he’s still as rapid and agile as ever, completes 51.2% of his dribbles and carries the ball into the opposition area 3.52 times per game.
Salah scores again midweek
Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images
Ryan Gravenberch is enjoying a breakout season, having started every league game under fellow countryman Slot. The midfielder is averaging 3.94 combined tackles and interceptions, and leads the team with 5.47 ball recoveries per 90. He is a big part of Liverpool’s build-up play, taking 72.1 touches per game (more than any non-defender) and is completing 89.1% of his passes.
Instrumental in the team’s focus on playing out from the back, captain Virgil van Dijk completes 91.2% of his passes and leads the side with 88.1 touches per 90. The tall centre half, who wins 73.8% of his aerial duels, was given a rough ride by Dominic Calvert-Lewin on his last appearance at Goodison and will want to banish the memory of that subpar outing.
Solution
In 21 games this season, across all competitions, Liverpool have only been beaten once, almost three months ago and been held to draws on two occasions. They’ve defeated a number of strong sides on the way, including Chelsea, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Madrid and Manchester City, so have to be considered as formidable opposition. Everton, in the meantime, have won only ten matches in total in 2024, and just one in their last six games.
However, the Blues did win the last Merseyside Derby at Goodison in April and it’s likely they’ll attempt a similar gameplan to that which brought them success back then. The hosts only posted a 25% possession share, but they played with early aggression, were effective with set-pieces and Calvert-Lewin bullied the Liverpool centre halves. There’s no reason the same approach cannot work again today.
Sean Dyche is not a man to change things up if he thinks it’s working, so I anticipate no changes to the Everton side which won so handily in midweek. I have serious doubts about the real effect that Abdoulaye Doucouré has in an advanced role, but he will likely continue there today and I expect that Iliman Ndiaye will again line up on the right, where he struggled to have any impact on Wednesday.
Let’s hope the Blues players will be performing knee slides this afternoon!
Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images
The Toffees defence didn’t impress me against a wasteful Wolves, with Jarrad Branthwaite still playing his way into the campaign and James Tarkowski looking ponderous and an odd mix of reckless and hesitant all season. Left back Vitalii Mykolenko is yet to find any real form this term, also. Ashley Young has been solid on the right, but the entire unit figures to be tested to breaking point by a Reds attack laden with pace and goalscoring threat.
I hope that the Blues can do themselves – and an expectant crowd – justice this afternoon, in what will be the last league derby played at the old ground. Motivation should be in ample supply and sometimes that can provide that extra impetus, bridging the talent gap with an opponent. This will need to be the case for the Toffees to get anything from this game, I fear.
Prediction: Everton 1-3 Liverpool
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