2:24PM: In a follow-up message from Olney on X, he hears from rival executives that the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset. As a hypothetical, Olney suggests that if the Dodgers wanted Arenado, Chris Taylor and the $17MM remaining on his contract could be offered back to St. Louis to help cover the financial difference. It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.
2:04PM: Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicate that the Cardinals may not be entirely viewing 2025 as a rebuild year, though the team has already made some moves with an eye towards reducing payroll. Trading Nolan Arenado would certainly be just about the biggest move St. Louis could make in that effort to get younger and less expensive, though beyond just the $74MM in owed salary, moving Arenado is difficult due to his no-trade clause.
To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney (X link) writes that Arenado has “a very limited list of…preferred teams” for potential trades. This in turn has left the Cardinals without a ton of leverage in finding an ideal trade fit that would help the Cards recoup something beyond just salary relief for the All-Star third baseman.
Previous reports in regards to Arenado this offseason indicated that he hasn’t directly asked for a trade, but he would be willing to move to first base if such a defensive switch is a better fit for a new team. These two items represent the complicated nature of these trade talks, as Arenado is seemingly ready to be very flexible and accommodating of a trade, but only to a few clubs. It isn’t known exactly how many teams Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, or how many of those teams have their own interest in Arenado as a trade candidate.
It is possible that the Arenado situation might have informed Mozeliak’s comments about the organization having “every intention of fielding a good baseball team” in 2025. Willson Contreras has already let the Cards know he isn’t waiving his no-trade protection, and so St. Louis still wanted more time for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages at catcher, the pivot move was installing Contreras as the team’s new regular first baseman. Sonny Gray also has a no-trade clause that he reportedly isn’t keen on waiving, complicating the Cardinals’ efforts to move on from the last two years of Gray’s contract.
If trading Arenado is also going to be unfeasible due to a narrow market, the Cardinals might’ve decided against entirely punting on the 2025 season. Pending free agent Ryan Helsley now seems to be a less-likely trade candidate, further indicating that St. Louis might attempt to rebuild on the fly while still competing in the NL Central. Of course, Mozeliak’s stance on Helsley could also be gamesmanship to drive up offers, and it’s still early enough in the offseason that the Cards might again change lanes depending on how the trade and free agent markets develop in the next few months.
For instance, the third base market will be altered once Alex Bregman and (in the event of a position change) Willy Adames sign their next contracts. The Phillies are also known to be shopping Alec Bohm, giving third-base needy teams another option. None of this might really change things if Arenado simply isn’t willing to expand his list beyond that “very limited” number, but a new team suddenly having a need at third base could perhaps convince Arenado otherwise.