Mike Clay, ESPN Senior WriterDec 19, 2024, 09:36 AM ET
CloseFantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Pro Football Writers of America
Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 16, which kicks off Thursday with the Broncos at the Chargers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DEN-LAC | HOU-KC | PIT-BAL | NYG-ATL | DET-CHI | CLE-CIN | TEN-IND | LAR-NYJ
PHI-WAS | ARI-CAR | MIN-SEA | NE-BUF | JAX-LV | SF-MIA | TB-DAL | NO-GB
Projected Score: Broncos 19, Chargers 17
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1815.5
Average
QB2014.8
Average
RB2811.5
Shaky
RB397.6
Shaky
RB427.1
Shaky
RB447.0
Shaky
WR2813.6
Good
WR2713.6
Average
WR4310.6
Average
WR677.5
Good
WR687.5
Average
WR727.1
Good
WR737.0
Good
TE207.7
Average
DST56.9
Average
DST165.7
Average
Lineup locks: Ladd McConkey, Courtland Sutton
Kimani Vidal played on a career-high 67% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in Week 15. The boost in playing time didn’t lead to much production, however, as the rookie totaled only three carries and three targets in the loss. Since producing 51 yards and scoring his only career touchdown back in Week 6, Vidal has failed to clear 34 yards or 4.2 fantasy points in six games. Vidal and backfield-mate Gus Edwards (under 10 fantasy points in all 10 games this season) should be nowhere close to fantasy lineups.
Over/Under: 36.6 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 57% (15th highest)
Projected Score: Chiefs 21, Texans 19
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1715.5
Poor
QB2314.6
Shaky
RB818.5
Poor
RB329.3
Poor
RB407.2
Poor
WR717.3
Average
WR4111.1
Good
WR539.6
Good
WR628.5
Average
TE513.1
Average
TE188.0
Good
TE237.4
Average
DST37.2
Shaky
DST86.5
Average
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Travis Kelce
Right when it seemed like Isiah Pacheco was retaking control of the Chiefs’ backfield, things quickly shifted back to a full-on committee. During Sunday’s win in Cleveland, Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both handled exactly 13 carries and one target on 28 snaps, and Samaje Perine (19 snaps) was also involved.
Pacheco has yet to find the end zone or clear 8.1 fantasy points in the three games since his return. He’s handled a solid 30 touches over the last two weeks, but the shared backfield has obviously limited his output — the same as it has for Hunt (under 50 yards and 6.0 fantasy points in all three games). Pacheco remains the better fantasy option of the two, but neither is a safe flex option against a Houston defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 39.7 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 58% (14th highest)
Projected Score: Ravens 30, Steelers 19
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB224.0
Shaky
QB2114.8
Good
RB917.3
Average
RB3010.4
Shaky
RB349.2
Shaky
RB368.1
Average
WR1515.4
Good
WR2014.7
Average
WR479.8
Average
TE1110.0
Average
TE148.6
Shaky
DST66.9
Average
DST292.9
Poor
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Zay Flowers
Rashod Bateman’s boom/bust season rolls on. The four-year vet put up 80 yards and two TDs on Sunday and has now found the end zone seven times in 14 games this season. Bateman has reached 15 fantasy points four times, but has also fallen short of 12.5 points in 10 games this season. Target volume remains an issue, as Bateman is averaging 4.1 per game and has cleared five only three times. Despite the occasional big game, Bateman is too volatile to consider for your flex spot, especially with Joey Porter Jr. shadow coverage likely on tap this week.
Over/Under: 49 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 84% (3rd highest)
Projected Score: Falcons 24, Giants 16
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB2414.7
Good
QB3012.7
Great
RB320.6
Great
RB2213.6
Average
RB417.1
Average
RB437.1
Great
WR617.6
Great
WR2314.3
Shaky
WR509.6
Shaky
WR549.5
Great
WR618.5
Shaky
TE168.1
Poor
DST27.4
Great
DST204.9
Average
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers, Drake London
After averaging 7.7 targets per game during his first 10 outings, Darnell Mooney has plummeted to an average of 4.5 (max of seven) during his past four games. As a result (and coupled with Kirk Cousins’ struggles) Mooney has maxed out at 27 yards and 5.0 fantasy points in three of his last four outings. The exception was a 142-yard effort against Minnesota in Week 14, though he followed that up by going without a catch on one target on Monday night. Mooney’s matchup will have added appeal this week if the Giants remain without their top three corners for the third week in a row but, especially with Michael Penix Jr. making his first start, he’s no more than a risky flex option.
Over/Under: 39.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 75% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Lions 30, Bears 20
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB718.1
Shaky
QB1216.7
Good
RB122.8
Great
RB2113.8
Average
WR417.9
Shaky
WR1415.6
Average
WR2613.8
Average
WR3512.3
Shaky
WR3811.7
Average
WR578.8
Shaky
TE711.8
Good
DST185.3
Good
DST312.8
Poor
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta
David Montgomery is done for the season, which is notable considering that three of Gibbs’ four biggest snap shares in his career have come with Montgomery limited or out. Two (86% and 69%) were during Weeks 7-8 last season when Montgomery was sidelined and the other (69%) was last week with Montgomery limited to 24 snaps. In those two games last season, Gibbs totaled 51 touches, 315 yards and two scores. He reached 27 fantasy points in both. Montgomery also missed Week 3 last season and Gibbs was held to 82 yards on 18 touches, though it was only his third NFL game.
Last week, Gibbs produced 114 yards and two touchdowns on 13 touches (28.4 points). He is already the RB3 in fantasy points and, with a slight to moderate increase in workload on the horizon, he has become arguably the most valuable RB in fantasy. Craig Reynolds and Sione Vaki figure to handle change-of-pace duties but neither is likely to emerge as a viable flex option.
Over/Under: 49.4 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 83% (4th highest)
Projected Score: Bengals 27, Browns 17
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB420.6
Average
QB2814.2
Great
RB719.0
Shaky
RB319.8
Good
WR121.9
Good
WR1315.5
Good
WR2913.1
Average
WR569.1
Average
WR648.1
Average
WR717.3
Good
TE612.0
Great
DST96.3
Great
DST273.6
Shaky
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
Nick Chubb is done for the season, which means Cleveland figures to revert back to Jerome Ford as its lead back. With Chubb out during Weeks 1-6, Ford played on 58% of snaps (67% if we exclude a Week 6 game he left after two snaps). Ford averaged 11.9 fantasy PPG during that stretch and reached 15 points twice. Ford’s second-best game of the season actually came this past Sunday. With Chubb limited to only 20 snaps, Ford produced 104 yards and one TD (18.4 fantasy points) on nine touches.
Ford will defer some work to D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong Jr. in a Jameis Winston-led offense that rarely targets its running backs, so he’s no more than a desperation flex option. He has a plus Week 16 matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed 535 yards and four touchdowns to RBs over their last three games.
Over/Under: 44.3 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 81% (5th highest)
Projected Score: Colts 19, Titans 16
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1516.1
Average
QB3212.5
Average
RB1714.9
Good
RB2014.3
Good
RB377.7
Good
WR3712.2
Poor
WR4510.4
Average
WR489.7
Average
WR707.4
Poor
TE247.2
Great
DST106.3
Good
DST146.0
Great
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard
Tyjae Spears came out of nowhere to put up 92 yards, two TDs and 27.2 fantasy points in Week 15. The big showing came after he had totaled 275 yards and 51.5 fantasy points on 68 touches during his first nine games this season. Despite the strong outing, Spears isn’t close to a safe RB2/flex option. He was limited to five yards on four carries and his 10 touches matched his second-highest total in a game this season.
Pollard seemed to be the victim of Spears’ “hot hand” Sunday, but he still had 17 carries and found the end zone. Week 16 presents itself as a good matchup, but it’s better for Pollard than it is for Spears. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most RB rushing yards this season. Pollard is riskier here than in week’s past, but he’s on the RB2 radar, whereas Spears belongs on the bench.
Over/Under: 35.2 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 62% (9th highest)
Projected Score: Rams 26, Jets 23
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Garrett Wilson
Aaron Rodgers exploded for 30.1 fantasy points Sunday — his highest total since Week 11 of the 2021 season. The big day was enough for Rodgers’ first weekly fantasy finish better than eighth this season. He’s finished 15th (or lower) in nine out of 14 games. The 30-point day was powered by three passing scores, but also 45 rushing yards. That latter number was most shocking, as Rodgers entered the game with just 56 rushing yards on the season and he hadn’t run for 45 yards in a game since Week 4 of the 2019 season.
It’s hard to imagine that any of this continues, but it’s nonetheless several steps in the right direction as he enters another strong matchup, this time against a Rams defense that is among the top-10 most-generous defenses in terms of passing touchdowns and QB fantasy points allowed. Consider Rodgers to be no more than a low-ceiling streamer in deep leagues.
Over/Under: 48 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 61% (11th highest)
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Commanders 23
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson Jr., A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith
Smith is battling through a boom/bust fantasy campaign, but you’ll be hard-pressed to bench him this week after he caught 11 of his 12 targets for 109 yards and his sixth TD of the season against a good Steelers defense last week. The 11 catches were a career high, the 12 targets were a season high, the yardage was his most in over a year and the 28.0 fantasy points were his most since Week 16 of 2022.
Smith has produced 13-plus fantasy points in eight out of his 11 games this season, but he has also fallen short of 7.0 points twice in his last four outings. He’s back on the WR3 radar this week against an improved Washington defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points over their last eight games.
Over/Under: 49.8 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 61% (10th highest)
Projected Score: Cardinals 27, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Jalen Coker returned from injury in Week 15 and came up big with 110 yards and a score on six targets. Coker has been on the field for at least half of Carolina’s passing plays in seven different games this season but his results have varied. He has hit 17 fantasy points twice, but fallen short of 11 in the other five. Coker has handled six-plus targets in three of his last four games, but even in an improved Carolina offense, consistent fantasy output is a long shot. Xavier Legette’s absence will help, but Coker is best left on waivers/benches this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR fantasy points over their past eight games.
Over/Under: 46.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 75% (7th highest)
Projected Score: Vikings 21, Seahawks 18
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1016.8
Average
QB2714.0
Poor
RB1515.3
Good
RB1614.9
Poor
RB387.7
Poor
WR319.1
Average
WR2214.6
Great
WR2513.8
Average
WR3013.0
Great
TE811.0
Average
TE257.1
Shaky
DST47.1
Good
DST155.8
Average
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, T.J. Hockenson
If you have Metcalf on your squad, you’re likely starting him, but one can understand if you give that decision some pause. The star receiver is averaging only 9.8 fantasy PPG in the five games since his return from injury, which includes fewer than 11 points in four straight. Metcalf has found the end zone only three times this season (his career low is six) and two of them came during Weeks 1-2.
Volume is an issue here, as Metcalf’s three looks on Sunday were his fewest in any game in which he didn’t leave injured since Week 16 of his rookie season (2019). The good news is that he has a promising Week 16 matchup against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points to WRs. Despite the slump, Metcalf remains a viable WR3.
Over/Under: 39 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 59% (13th highest)
Projected Score: Bills 33, Patriots 20
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB125.4
Average
QB917.6
Average
RB1016.8
Average
RB2413.4
Great
WR2414.0
Shaky
WR4410.5
Shaky
WR4610.0
Great
WR499.7
Great
WR608.6
Great
TE911.4
Shaky
TE1010.2
Good
DST136.0
Great
DST321.7
Poor
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir
Rhamondre Stevenson has produced at least 77 yards in four of his last five games, but has failed to reach 13.0 fantasy points in any outing during the stretch, averaging 9.4 per game along the way. The issue has been a lack of touchdowns (none since Week 9) and minimal receiving work (21-or-fewer receiving yards in 12 out of 13 games this season, including seven games under 10 yards). Despite the slump, Stevenson remains New England’s lead back (21-plus touches in three of his last five), which keeps him in the flex discussion against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB yards and the second-most RB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 53 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 90% (Highest)
Projected Score: Jaguars 22, Raiders 20
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB2215.4
Great
QB2514.3
Average
RB2513.1
Average
RB2911.5
Great
RB339.8
Great
RB358.9
Average
WR1115.9
Shaky
WR1615.0
Great
WR598.6
Great
WR697.5
Shaky
TE215.5
Good
TE178.1
Great
TE227.6
Good
DST175.4
Average
DST234.4
Great
Lineup locks: Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Jacksonville’s RB room remains fluid, as one week after Tank Bigsby out-snapped (30-28) and out-carried (18-4) Travis Etienne Jr., the second-year back returned to a clear secondary role. Bigsby still contributed on Sunday (11 carries, 1 target, 22 snaps), but Etienne was well ahead in all areas (14, 5, 54). Bigsby has cleared 13.2 fantasy points only twice this season (both prior to Week 8) and shouldn’t be near lineups. Etienne hasn’t been much better, as the 12.5 fantasy points he delivered in Week 15 was his highest total since he did the same in Week 3. Etienne’s season-high 18-touch effort against the Jets is enough to make him a passable flex option but, especially considering he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2, he’s ideally left on benches.
Sincere McCormick played on 14 of the Raiders’ first 17 snaps prior to leaving Monday night’s game due to an injury that landed him on IR. Once he left the game, Ameer Abdullah (28 snaps) and Alexander Mattison (20) split backfield work, with Mattison leading in the carry department (7-3) and Abdullah (7-4) being the priority in passing situations. We should expect similar deployment this week — and that’s notable against Jacksonville’s awful defense, which includes the third-most RB fantasy points allowed. Abdullah and Mattison are both sneaky lottery tickets for your flex spot.
Over/Under: 41.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 55% (16th highest)
Projected Score: Dolphins 24, 49ers 22
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1117.4
Poor
QB1416.0
Shaky
RB619.2
Good
RB1315.3
Average
WR1914.9
Poor
WR1814.8
Shaky
WR3312.9
Poor
WR3612.3
Shaky
TE314.0
Average
TE412.8
Poor
DST195.2
Good
DST254.2
Shaky
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings, Tyreek Hill, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith
The 49ers tried to get Deebo Samuel Sr. going last week with two carries and seven targets. The result? 19 yards on five touches. Samuel has now failed to clear 6.1 fantasy points in five consecutive games and has been below 13 points in eight straight (and 10 of his last 11). Now, Samuel remains a big part of the San Francisco offense and three of the team’s past four games have been derailed by either Brock Purdy’s absence or poor weather. Still, Samuel has finished better than WR40 just once since Week 2 and has no top-10 outings this season. He’s no better than a flex option against a Miami defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 46.4 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 59% (12th highest)
Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Cowboys 19
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB817.9
Great
QB2913.7
Great
RB1914.2
Average
RB2612.1
Average
RB2712.1
Poor
WR816.7
Good
WR916.7
Good
WR4210.8
Good
WR588.8
Good
WR638.3
Good
TE139.6
Shaky
TE158.8
Great
DST126.2
Good
DST224.4
Shaky
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans
Jalen McMillan is on the rise, having produced three TDs during his last two games. After failing to clear either 35 yards or 10.2 fantasy points in any of his first eight NFL games, McMillan now has had 59-plus yards and 18-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. The third-rookie rookie is a full-time player opposite Evans and that doesn’t figure to change down the stretch. McMillan has a plus-matchup this week against a Dallas defense that sits top 10 in receptions, yards and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. McMillan’s limited body of work makes him risky, but he’s not the worst flex option in deep leagues.
Over/Under: 44.8 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 74% (8th highest)
Projected Score: Packers 26, Saints 15
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB1915.2
Average
QB3111.9
Poor
RB223.1
Average
RB1416.3
Average
WR4011.4
Great
WR3911.4
Great
WR519.7
Poor
WR559.2
Great
TE197.8
Good
TE217.5
Poor
DST17.5
Average
DST283.0
Poor
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara
After playing on 25 of the first 27 offensive snaps Sunday, Kamara left with an injury. Kendre Miller picked up where he left off, playing on 21 of the final 24 snaps (Jamaal Williams played on the other three). Miller showed well with 46 yards on nine carries and he’s now averaging a healthy 4.6 yards on 28 attempts this season. Should Kamara miss this week’s game, Miller appears poised to handle a feature-back role. He hasn’t yet been a factor in the passing game (a single yard on five targets), though he has that skill in his arsenal, as evidenced by his 117 yards on 12 targets last season. If Miller starts this week, consider him as an RB2 option.
Over/Under: 40.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 87% (2nd highest)