It’s the time of year when NBA teams begin to think about the bigger picture.
Rumors are spreading around the league like we’re back in high school. Jimmy Butler might go here. But he also might go there. But he also might stay in Miami. Slow starts are turning into bad seasons. One role player has invented a new way to rebound free throws. Another can’t-miss floaters.
Let’s open up the notebook and run through four trends that have caught my eye over the past week:
Jimmy Butler saga
The Phoenix Suns could lust after Butler all they want, but putting a package together for him isn’t so simple.
The Miami Heat are “seriously listening” to trade offers for Butler, The Athletic’s David Aldridge reported earlier this week. For now, the suitors are unclear. One suspected destination in particular has been tossed around in the public sphere: Phoenix. Yet, any hope for Butler could die with just one word from Bradley Beal.
Beal makes $50.2 million this season, is under contract for two more years after this one and, most importantly, wields one of the NBA’s two no-trade clauses (the other belongs to LeBron James). Because the Suns are above the collective bargaining agreement’s second apron, not allowed to send out more than one player at a time in a trade and also not allowed to take back more money than they deal away, their only mode to acquire Butler would be by delivering Beal to the Heat.
There was a time when Beal dreamed of living in South Florida. When the Washington Wizards canvassed the market for him in 2023 before eventually trading him to Phoenix, the Heat were No. 1 on the three-time All-Star’s wish list. Even before Beal and the Wizards eventually parted ways, Miami was in the back of his mind. He appreciated the organizational culture, as well as the city.
But life evolves.
The Heat bowed out of the Beal sweepstakes, instead saving their assets for a chase at Damian Lillard, who ended up with the Milwaukee Bucks. Today, Beal may not want Miami as much as he did then.
Earlier this year, he sold his house in Los Angeles, where he used to live in the offseason, to relocate full time to Phoenix. His family is now set up in the area year-round, a short trip from his in-laws in L.A. Beal would not greet the chance to go to Miami now with the same enthusiasm he would have a year and a half ago.
But for argument’s sake, let’s switch to a world where the Heat and Suns agree to a Beal-for-Butler swap (which would require Miami unloading more money onto a third team and could demand Phoenix including its 2031 first-round pick). That still may not be enough to get a trade done.
The Heat are notoriously against giving out no-trade clauses. James wanted one but couldn’t get it. Neither could Butler. Beal’s would carry over with him to Miami, just as it did to Phoenix in the move from D.C.
Miami has notoriously tried to stay competitive over the years. If anyone can claim that a spot in the Play-In means title hopes, it’s this organization. So it has handed out big contracts to players like James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Kelly Olynyk all with the philosophy not to bottom out. When the contracts become too large, the Heat remedy the situation. They have worked salary-cap magic to free themselves of overpays, finding ways to sign-and-trade for Butler or to clear the room to add James and Chris Bosh in 2010. But it’s not so easy to pull a rabbit out of a hat when the bunny has a no-pull clause.
So Butler, who is sneakily having his most-efficient season ever, may not be able to get to Phoenix, though someone could take a swing at the 35-year-old, even if trading a $48.8 million salary in-season is increasingly difficult in today’s NBA.
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Maybe the Denver Nuggets, who are willing to part with Michael Porter Jr., as The Athletic’s Sam Amick and Tony Jones recently reported, could build a trade around Porter, Zeke Nnaji and Dario Šarić. Maybe the Chicago Bulls are feeling nostalgic. Maybe the Golden State Warriors, after trading for Dennis Schröder, are still feeling frisky with Andrew Wiggins’ contract and other add-ons. Maybe there’s a mystery team out there ready to take a swing.
Because of the money, Butler’s impending free agency and the presumed payday that will come with it, any trade for Butler becomes complicated quickly. But there isn’t a potential destination riddled with more obstacles than Phoenix.
Alex Caruso’s shooting
The biggest issue for Alex Caruso right now is not that he’s missing 72 percent of his 3-point attempts. It’s what all those misses are doing to the Oklahoma City Thunder offense.
The Thunder swapped Josh Giddey for Caruso this summer to create a different look. Giddey was a non-threat from deep, someone who was at his best with the ball in his hands. But the Thunder were loaded with creators and shooters. Come the playoffs, they couldn’t reach their peak with defenders sagging off Giddey and into the paint, clogging driving lanes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The Giddey effect hurt OKC enough that his playing time dwindled by the end of its 2024 postseason run.
Caruso appealed not just because he could defend the perimeter as intensely as any other guard. He could also knock down an open 3, which would mean space for his teammates. He shot 41 percent from deep last season in Chicago.
But now, the way opponents are game planning for Caruso doesn’t look much different from the way they manned Giddey.
Look at how much room the Houston Rockets gave Caruso during their matchup against the Thunder last week:
With extra defenders in the middle, Gilgeous-Alexander couldn’t flow to the rim. And no one even bothered to raise a gratuitous hand in Caruso’s vicinity once he received the basketball.
The Thunder offense is potent, but two of the rotation regulars, Caruso and Cason Wallace, are incurring uncharacteristic shooting seasons. Defenses are reacting accordingly. Come the playoffs, it could be difficult to play lineups with both of those guys together if neither ups his game from beyond the arc. And if opponents can feel this comfortable leaving Caruso alone, then Oklahoma City is in the same position it was in with Giddey.
Ty Jerome drives to the basket against Charlotte’s Miles Bridges. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)Ty Jerome’s floater
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ starting five has come together after a season of disjointedness. The Cavs are now 23-4, the best record in the NBA. No longer is anyone asking if Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can play together, if Darius Garland should be on the move or if Donovan Mitchell is really committed to the organization.
And yet, one part of the conversation isn’t loud enough: The Cavs’ bench is an unexpected wrecking crew.
Caris LeVert hasn’t missed a 3-pointer since the Browns last won an NFL Championship, nor has Isaac Okoro, who starts now and whom defenses still ignore in the corners, only this season they’re suffering from the strategy. Leave open Sam Merrill at your own peril. And then there is Ty Jerome, a well-traveled role player with two first names and three teams that have previously let him walk.
Jerome is hitting 45 percent of his 3-point attempts and has quietly emerged as a helpful defender. When he’s on the court, he’s responsible for 35 percent of his team’s steals, third in the NBA behind a couple of well-respected pests, Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels and Houston’s Tari Eason. But Jerome’s best trait is his touch.
Tune into any Cavs game, and you’ll notice a routine,
Jerome will bring the basketball up, then head into a pick-and-roll. If his defender goes under the screen, he’s prone to pull up for the 3. But if he goes over it, trailing Jerome from behind, then the defense better watch out, because there is a decent chance Jerome will stroll to his favorite spot on the court.
Jerome doesn’t out-run anyone. Instead, he stays slow and low, keeping his defender on his back. His pick-and-roll dissections have all the vibes of a Jamie Moyer MLB All-Star season. If the big man steps back, up goes the floater, which doesn’t usually swish in but is so soft that it more often than not makes its way through the net.
Nearly one in every four Jerome shots comes from floater range, and 64 percent of them go in, second in the NBA among qualifying non-bigs.
All is going right for the Cavaliers through 27 games. Add Jerome to the list.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl’s free-throw rebounds
Some players master recovering loose balls. Others can carve out space on the offensive boards. A few can snag their teammates’ misses after free throws clank off the rim. Robinson-Earl, the New Orleans Pelicans’ 6-foot-9 forward, has mashed all three of those artistries into one and now can proudly call himself the owner of the NBA’s most wonderfully energetic and niche skill.
When a Pelican misses a free throw, Robinson-Earl causes a fracas and, instead of grabbing the basketball out of the air, digs it out of the ground.
Robinson-Earl is already an under-appreciated offensive rebounder, someone who is receiving playing time on a squad littered with injuries. So far this season, he has pulled down nearly 11 percent of the Pelicans’ misses while he’s been on the court, a solid number though not anywhere near the league lead.
But after free throws, he’s one of a kind.
He will push the man trying to box him out forward, hopefully far enough under the rim that he can get a hand on the basketball if his teammate happens to miss the freebie. When he can’t catch it, he spikes it downward. Then it’s off to the races.
Look at how he maneuvered around the Los Angeles Lakers’ Dalton Knecht here, then out-hustled Knecht for the save:
Or how about this one, when Robinson-Earl flies over from the opposite block, then goes headfirst into the camera row as the ball is bouncing out of bounds?
Twenty-three percent of the time a Pelican misses a free throw when Robinson-Earl is on the court, he ends up with the rebound, best in the NBA by a long shot among qualifying players, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The 5-23 Pelicans could use some good fortune. At least they have Robinson-Earl creating them an extra possession every once in a while.
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(Top photo of Jimmy Butler: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)